Anton Ostlund beat Jonny Clayton despite a 15% chance
16 matches from the Grand Slam of Darts, ranked by how likely each winner was on the legs and averages.
15%Anton Ostlund's chance on the averages
Anton Ostlund beat Jonny Clayton 5-4 at the Grand Slam of Darts, with averages of 85.75 v 92.53. Going by those averages alone, Anton Ostlund had a 15% chance of winning a match of that length.
A win like that is not all luck. An average counts every dart the same, so it cannot see who took their doubles when the leg was on the line. It does show which results the scoring did not point to.
The latest matches, least likely first
| Winner | Beat | Score | Averages | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Ostlund | Jonny Clayton | 5-4 | 85.75 v 92.53 | 15% |
| Tom Sykes | Luke Woodhouse | 5-3 | 85.97 v 89.56 | 29% |
| Rusty-Jake Rodriguez | Ross Smith | 5-3 | 83.43 v 86.51 | 32% |
| Gerwyn Price | Joe Hunt | 5-3 | 97.83 v 96.61 | 57% |
| Michael van Gerwen | Henry Coates | 5-4 | 100.42 v 99.19 | 58% |
| Wessel Nijman | Adam Sevada | 5-1 | 94.66 v 91.63 | 68% |
| Tommy Morris | Josh Rock | 5-2 | 100.33 v 96.92 | 70% |
| Stephen Bunting | Raymond Smith | 5-4 | 100.71 v 96.65 | 73% |
| Luke Littler | Beau Greaves | 5-2 | 109.97 v 103.82 | 83% |
| James Wade | Cam Crabtree | 5-1 | 104.09 v 96.50 | 88% |
| Jermaine Wattimena | Lisa Ashton | 5-2 | 87.80 v 79.03 | 91% |
| Gian van Veen | Carl Sneyd | 5-2 | 110.51 v 101.09 | 92% |
| Ryan Searle | Charlie Manby | 5-4 | 98.55 v 86.19 | 97% |
| Luke Humphries | Paolo Nebrida | 5-3 | 105.70 v 91.03 | 99% |
| Chris Dobey | Jan Schmidt | 5-2 | 98.66 v 78.73 | 100% |
| Nathan Aspinall | Maik Kuivenhoven | 5-1 | 111.68 v 87.71 | 100% |
Wins above the averages, this event so far
Each player's wins so far, minus the wins their averages predicted, across 16 matches.
How this works: how we work out each chance. Follow the event: Grand Slam of Darts 2026.
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